Forecasting and Effective Planning in Supply Chain

Introduction: Demand Forecasting & The Strategic Importance of Planning (2 hours)

Instructor: Seymur Ilyasov

• Strategic planning
• How is strategic planning conducted?
• Analysis and preparation of the current state map
• Setting strategic objectives

Video address by Seymur Ilyasov

Module 1: Demand Forecasting (8 hours)

Instructor: Vugar Aghayev

Introduction to Forecasting and Its Role

• The nature and classification of demand
• The role of forecasting in business
• Case study: Problems caused by inaccurate forecasts

Forecasting Methods

• Qualitative and quantitative methods
• Practical calculations in Excel (Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing)
• Assignment: Preparing a forecast based on sales history

Forecast vs Plan & S&OP

• Differences between forecast and plan
• S&OP process (5 steps)
• Case studies based on the trainer’s past experience

Practice & Simulation

• Team-based forecasting exercise
• “S&OP meeting” role-play
• Final outcomes and 5 key rules

Module 2: Inventory Planning (6 hours)

Instructor: Seymur Ilyasov

• Inventory Management Methods
• Value-based inventory management
• Time-based inventory management
• ABC analysis
• Identification of strategically important stock
• Tactical adjustments

EOQ – Economic Order Quantity

• Cost calculation
• Quantity calculation
• Order volume calculation

ROP – Reorder Point

• Calculating the optimal reorder date
• Order cycle visualization

The Bullwhip Effect

• Bullwhip Effect in Multi-Echelon Supply Chains
• Strategic decisions and mistakes that trigger the Bullwhip Effect
• Vulnerable points in the supply chain and prevention methods

Sudden Demand Fluctuations

• Causes of sudden demand changes
• Impact on the company and supply chain
• Risk mitigation and preventive measures

Safety Stock

• Information management in the supply chain
• Managing constraints in the supply chain
• Determining optimal safety stock levels

Module 3: Warehouse Management & Distribution Center Planning (12 hours)

Instructor: Ozal Alizade

Warehouse Management Fundamentals

• The role of warehousing in business
• The place of warehouses within the supply chain
• Goods receiving process and stages
• Common receiving issues and solutions (real cases)
• Use of technology in receiving (barcode, RFID, WMS integration)

Goods Dispatch

• Order tracking and picking methods
• Quality and accuracy indicators in dispatch
• Preparation for delivery

Storage & Stocking

• Storage methods
• Safety and risk management during storage

Warehouse Performance Indicators (KPIs)

• Employee performance metrics
• Motivation systems to improve performance
• On-time receiving rate
• Receiving accuracy (%)
• Inventory accuracy (%)
• Order picking accuracy (%)

Warehouse Design

• Business impact of warehouse design
• Problems caused by inefficient design (real cases)
• Zoning and ABC-based placement
• Product category-based placement
• Warehouse Equipment & Technology

Impact of equipment and technology on efficiency

• Warehouse equipment (forklifts, reach trucks, order pickers, etc.)
• Equipment planning based on workload
• Workforce and equipment synchronization
• WMS (Warehouse Management System)
• RFID & barcode systems
• Robotics: drones, automated picking systems
• Performance indicators (KPIs)

Distribution Planning

• Definition and objectives of distribution
• Central vs regional warehouses – advantages and disadvantages
• Hub-and-Spoke model
• What is cross-docking and how it works
• Route optimization
• Distribution scenarios
• TMS (Transportation Management System)
• Order integration (ERP/WMS → TMS)
• Distribution KPIs

Training Duration

Core training: 28 hours

Final exam: 2 additional hours

Total duration: 30 hours